Collector-Car Market Indices Obscure Divergent Sector Performance

More sectors of the collector car market declined than gained value over the past three months, according to Hagerty’s stock-market-style indexes. However, the shifts in either direction were modest, reinforcing the market’s relative stability. These 11 indexes are updated quarterly and track movement across key segments of the collector car market. Of the 11 indexes, twice as many decreased in value as increased (6 versus 3), while two were unchanged. The strongest change was for Ferraris built through 1972 (think cars like the 250 GT SWB, the 275 GTB/4, and the 365 GTB/4 Daytona coupe), which increased by 3% from April to July. That uptick regained recent losses to leave the segment 2% down year-over-year. Two other categories that earned small Q2 gains were Hagerty’s Supercars Index (comprised of cars like the Ferrari F40 and Porsche Carrera GT) and the index of RADwood-era collectible vehicles from the 1980s and 1990s (e.g., BMW E30 M3 and Porsche 944). Both rose just 1%, showing that even “hot” parts of the market aren’t burning with a blue flame. On the downside, Hagerty’s index of 1950s American cars fell farthest with a 3% drop, and the German Classic Car Index lost 2%, mainly due to flagging demand for 1970s BMWs. Four other indexes shed value (Blue Chip cars, British cars, Affordable Classics, and vintage Trucks and SUVs), but only by 1%. The Muscle Car Index and Japa

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Get automotive news, DIY tips, market trends, in-depth car profiles, and more right in your email inbox. After 15 consecutive months of growth, the Hagerty Market Rating has finally reversed course, dropping 1.42 points in the last month. This is the largest drop since the start of the COVID-19 shutdowns in April 2020. As then, the drop was spurred by macro-economic factors more than by events within the collector car market itself; yet there are signs that the period of unprecedented appreciation is coming to a close. The Hagerty Market Rating, as we've explained before, measures the "heat" of the collector car market by looking at data points within our world—auction sales, Hagerty Price Guide values, insurance data—and beyond it. It's the latter that really dragged down the rating this month. Macro-economic indicators used in the Market Rating are at their lowest point in more than a year, pulled down primarily by the S&P 500 and price of gold. The U.S. Home Price Index and Total Retail Sales are both slowing as well. But the biggest factor is—you guessed it—inflation, which just accelerated to 9.1 percent in June 2022, the highest since 1981. The relationship between collector-car values and inflation is complex. Some of the appreciation we've seen in recent months no doubt owes to the factors driving inflation elsewhere in the economy, including huge demand and supply shor